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$600 → $87: A Valuable Lesson About Bubbles

Posted December 03, 2025

Davis Wilson

By Davis Wilson

$600 → $87: A Valuable Lesson About Bubbles

There’s a tweet making its rounds.

I think it’s important for you to see and understand.

Here’s a screenshot:

Tweet screenshot

This tweet has 6,500 likes and was viewed over 750,000 times.

The message is simple: Zoom once traded at $600 with tiny profits.

Yet today, with billions in profits, it sits near $87.

If Zoom could collapse like that… why couldn’t today’s AI companies?

It is a fair question and a useful one.

But like most tweets, it leaves out a lot of important details.

Let’s rewind to October 2020 – the peak of the Zoom bubble.

Everyone was stuck at home.

Stimulus checks were rippling through the economy.

Millions of first-time traders were chasing quick profits.

More importantly, Zoom’s business was booming thanks to the sudden shift to remote work.

So while the tweet does mention that Zoom only had $20 million in net income, it doesn’t mention that net income was expected to grow exponentially in the years ahead.

Expected Net Income

The way to read this is that as of October 2020, Zoom’s net income expectation for the year ending January 31, 2021 was $695 million.

Analysts expected that number to climb higher – all the way up to $2.3 billion in 2025.

That was enormous projected growth in only a few years.

The tweet also doesn’t mention how extreme Zoom’s 2020 valuation actually was.

At the time it traded around 600x earnings and about 100x sales.

Even if everything went right those numbers were stretched far beyond reasonable.

But of course, not everything went right…

Within weeks of Zoom hitting its all-time high, Pfizer and Moderna released promising COVID vaccine data.

That single headline instantly reshaped expectations for Zoom’s future demand.

Work-from-home went from “permanent shift” to “temporary necessity.”

Within weeks ZM fell from $600 to $350.

Over the next few months the world reopened and Zoom’s earnings reflected the change.

Those once explosive growth expectations were slashed.

Actual earnings came in far different from forecasts.

Actual Net Income

When growth disappears, valuation follows.

So could AI have its own version of Zoom’s collapse?

Absolutely.

Any fast-growing industry can experience a sudden reversal in expectations.

A regulatory decision, a breakthrough from a competitor, or a shift in enterprise demand could cause earnings estimates to fall sharply.

If that happens, stock prices will adjust quickly.

While Kevin Malone’s tweet does not name specific AI stocks, I agree that some names in the space are disconnected from reality.

Palantir (PLTR) is a good example.

The stock currently trades around 388x earnings and 110x sales with growing competition in the AI software space.

This alone doesn’t guarantee it will crash.

But it does mean the margin for error is incredibly thin.

Like Zoom, this kind of valuation can unwind quickly if expectations change even slightly.

Now it’s important to know that not all AI stocks are created equal.

Stocks that I discuss here in The Million Mission – like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG) – trade at far more reasonable valuations with earnings that are consistently being revised higher.

  • Nvidia’s next year EPS estimates have climbed from $6.63 to $7.46 in just thirty days.
  • Microsoft’s have increased from $18.19 to $18.63.
  • Alphabet’s have moved from $11.01 to $11.14.

Nvidia has the highest P/E ratio of the bunch at just 44x.

None of this guarantees smooth sailing, of course.

Forecasting is tough even for experts.

But the evidence today still points in one direction: the AI buildout continues to accelerate.

Capital spending is rising. Earnings are rising. And the most important stocks in the space still trade at reasonable valuations.

If anything changes, you’ll hear it from me first.

But in the meantime, be careful with the viral takes.

Especially the ones that try to compress complex market cycles into 280 characters.

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